Contact: Phil Hearn
STARKVILLE, Miss.--A Mississippi State hurricane expert whose waterfront home was swept away by Hurricane Katrina says the Aug. 29 monster--with a gigantic storm surge approaching 35 feet--set a new standard for U.S. catastrophes.
Pat Fitzpatrick also predicts more big storms may be on the way--and soon.
An associate research professor at the Stennis Space Center office in Hancock County of the university's GeoResources Institute, Fitzpatrick said Katrina's "catastrophic effects have changed the face of the Southern United States.
"What remains in the aftermath of this horrific storm is total devastation," added the New Orleans native and author of "Hurricanes: A Reference Handbook." Scheduled for release in November by ABC-CLIO, the 325-page book will be his second on the subject.
GeoResources Institute director David Shaw called Fitzpatrick a "tremendous resource for Mississippi and the nation" on the topic of hurricanes, and said his work "complements GRI's multi-disciplinary team of researchers and professionals."
"Hurricane Katrina is likely to be recorded as the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States," said Fitzpatrick, whose two-story townhouse on Lake Pontchartrain's north shore was demolished by the storm. "The extent of the devastation to property and human lives from this hurricane is yet to be measured."
The MSU researcher, now living and working temporarily in Starkville, said computer simulations measuring Katrina's storm surge near the mouth of the Pearl River on the Mississippi-Louisiana state line were performed by GRI scientists at Stennis. The data was gathered with the cooperation of WorldWinds Inc., a Stennis-based weather company.
"Storm surge values of 30-33 feet can be seen west of Bay St. Louis," he said. "I personally think the model is still resulting in storm surge values that are two to three feet too low. But it does a very good job showing the overall flow pattern and inland penetration of the storm surge."
Fitzpatrick said GRI scientists currently are working on a proposal that would utilize the storm-surge model to investigate new levee configurations in Mississippi and Louisiana. They also would study the impact of wetland erosion and man-made canals--such as the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet--on the storm surge in Louisiana, he said.
Fitzpatrick, who was born in New Orleans right after Hurricane Betsy in 1965, said Katrina initially made landfall just south of Buras, La., with winds of 140 miles an hour as a Category 4 storm. It was a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 miles per hour by the time it hit the Mississippi-Louisiana line hours later, he added.
"Although Katrina weakened as she moved inland, she remained a hurricane 100 miles inland near Laurel," he continued. "Only when reaching Clarksville, Tenn., some 440-plus miles away [on the Tennessee-Kentucky border], did Katrina downgrade to a tropical depression" five days later.
Technically not as strong at landfall as historic Hurricane Camille--which devastated the Mississippi coast in 1969 with winds of near 200 miles an hour and a 25-foot storm surge--Fitzpatrick noted Katrina was a "significantly larger storm." It had an eye about 35 miles across, compared to Camille's tightly wound eight-mile-wide eye.
"Katrina's hurricane-force winds extended 120 miles from the storm center compared to Camille's 60 miles, and tropical storm-force winds reached 230 miles outwards compared to Camille's 180 miles," he said. "Katrina also moved slower than Camille, thereby increasing the storm surge potential and time of wind exposure."
Unfortunately, Fitzpatrick suggests more big storms may be looming. According to a Sept. 28 report in the Los Angeles Times, meteorologists examining the conditions that spawned hurricanes Katrina and Rita say there is a strong likelihood that another intense hurricane will occur this month.
"We are probably 10 years into a 30-year cycle of above average hurricane activity, especially major hurricanes," said Fitzpatrick, who also lived on the Louisiana Gulf Coast and in Houston, Texas, as a youth.
The scientist said a one-degree warming of Gulf waters since 1995--a primary cause of increasing hurricane activity--may be directly related to the so-called "ocean conveyor belt system." The system involves cyclical salinity changes in the northern Atlantic that, operating on a scale of 30 years, speed up or slow down ocean currents, and in turn make the ocean warmer or cooler than normal.
"The historical record shows that the late 1920s through the 1960s were prolific in terms of major hurricanes, followed by nearly 25 years of much fewer major hurricanes from
1971-94," he said. "Unfortunately, this downturn corresponded with unparalleled coastal development and a population largely unaware of past hurricane activity.
"Regrettably, it also appears this quiet trend ended in 1995 when 19 storms occurred, followed by above average hurricane seasons in most years since," Fitzpatrick added. "Even more alarming is that this active phase probably will continue for another 20 years, perhaps more."
MSU research vice president Colin Scanes said the GRI--which includes faculty from 22 departments within six colleges or units of the university--is a "world leader in advancing the state of the art in spatial technologies and resource management."
NEWS EDITORS/DIRECTORS: For more information, contact Dr. Fitzpatrick at (662) 325-7037 or fitz@erc.msstate.edu, or Dr. Shaw at 325-9575 or dshaw@gri.msstate.edu.